I agree that Gen Z will likely be the last generation to code professionally. While AI advancements are rapidly automating many aspects of programming, the timing of this transition will vary significantly across industries. The tech industry, which thrives on innovation and agility, will likely adopt AI-driven programming tools quickly. In contrast, sectors like government and banking will lag, potentially taking several decades to transition fully.
For example, government and banking rely heavily on decades-old legacy infrastructure, with critical systems built on programming languages like COBOL and assembly. Modernizing these systems is often risky and prohibitively expensive. The IRS still uses assembly language for tax processing because even minor errors in such sensitive systems can have catastrophic consequences. Furthermore, strict regulations and a risk-averse culture in these industries make transitioning to AI-driven workflows a slow and incremental.
A programmer’s job involves much more than just writing code. Building a business application often requires gathering requirements, managing system design, integrating with legacy systems, and collaborating with stakeholders. These tasks demand creativity, problem-solving, and domain expertise—skills that AI cannot fully replicate, at least not yet. While consumer software may automate more quickly due to simpler requirements and shorter lifespans, business applications will continue to require human oversight for much longer. This doesn’t mean the number of programmers needed to build and maintain business applications won’t significantly decrease. However, like COBOL, there won’t be a pipeline of new programmers since junior and mid-level roles—critical for gaining experience—will largely disappear.
The transition will also result in career displacement, primarily for programmers focused on repetitive coding tasks. As you mentioned, many must adapt by shifting into AI orchestration, domain expertise, or ethical oversight roles. While the tech industry may embrace these changes by the late 2020s, government and banking will move much more slowly, ensuring that traditional programming roles persist in certain areas for years or even decades.
I will end with the quote: "The future is already here — it's just not evenly distributed." — William Gibson
This quote perfectly reflects how AI-driven programming will transform industries at different speeds, with tech companies leading the charge while government and banking take much longer to adapt.
The last generation of p̶r̶o̶g̶r̶a̶m̶m̶e̶r̶s̶ thought workers.
Excellent post!
I agree that Gen Z will likely be the last generation to code professionally. While AI advancements are rapidly automating many aspects of programming, the timing of this transition will vary significantly across industries. The tech industry, which thrives on innovation and agility, will likely adopt AI-driven programming tools quickly. In contrast, sectors like government and banking will lag, potentially taking several decades to transition fully.
For example, government and banking rely heavily on decades-old legacy infrastructure, with critical systems built on programming languages like COBOL and assembly. Modernizing these systems is often risky and prohibitively expensive. The IRS still uses assembly language for tax processing because even minor errors in such sensitive systems can have catastrophic consequences. Furthermore, strict regulations and a risk-averse culture in these industries make transitioning to AI-driven workflows a slow and incremental.
A programmer’s job involves much more than just writing code. Building a business application often requires gathering requirements, managing system design, integrating with legacy systems, and collaborating with stakeholders. These tasks demand creativity, problem-solving, and domain expertise—skills that AI cannot fully replicate, at least not yet. While consumer software may automate more quickly due to simpler requirements and shorter lifespans, business applications will continue to require human oversight for much longer. This doesn’t mean the number of programmers needed to build and maintain business applications won’t significantly decrease. However, like COBOL, there won’t be a pipeline of new programmers since junior and mid-level roles—critical for gaining experience—will largely disappear.
The transition will also result in career displacement, primarily for programmers focused on repetitive coding tasks. As you mentioned, many must adapt by shifting into AI orchestration, domain expertise, or ethical oversight roles. While the tech industry may embrace these changes by the late 2020s, government and banking will move much more slowly, ensuring that traditional programming roles persist in certain areas for years or even decades.
I will end with the quote: "The future is already here — it's just not evenly distributed." — William Gibson
This quote perfectly reflects how AI-driven programming will transform industries at different speeds, with tech companies leading the charge while government and banking take much longer to adapt.